Publisher’s Note Richard Loomis Publisher World Energy® Magazine More from Richard Loomis…

World Energy, v10n4 Read more articles from this issue

“March will be unusually warm, on average, despite a cool end to the month. Unusually warm temperatures will continue in April, while May will be only a bit above normal. Rainfall will be below normal.”
– Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for Texas, Oklahoma and surrounding states

“Not everyone expects the next three months to be mild. A substantial number of people depend upon the wooly worm for their predictions, and this year the wooly worm predicts a rough winter. … Its coloration is orange and black, with each color present in varying amounts. The orange supposedly represents mildness and the black indicates severe weather. This year, there was more black than orange.”
– Jim Ramsey, weather forecaster, robinstorm.blogspot.com

“‘Longevity’ replaces ‘sustainability’ as a core concept for the green thing. Just hanging on to that expensive, fancy car does more to help the planet than recycling stuff again and again. Or so the marketing argument will go.”
– BusinessWeek.com prediction for 2008

Nostradamus never had it so good. If only the Internet had been around in the 16th century, the French apothecary and seer could have taken advantage of a worldwide web of prophets.

Today, we have no shortage of amateur prognosticators eager to share their visions of everything from the weather to the Academy Awards to the upcoming presidential election.

And of course, the energy industry is rolling in crystal balls. Some of the predictions, such as the rise of the $100 barrel, are based on the inevitable march of the world economy. Others, such as whether peak oil has occurred (and if not, when it will), spark debate.

Predictions aside, some things we can take as gospel: For one, energy consumption is rising. We are seeing the telltale signs that changes are occurring across the world. We have hybrid cars in the United States. Headlines abound with announcements that relate to power and attempts to curb energy usage. The first new coal plants in decades are applying for permits. We might build a nuclear power plant in the near future.

The most recent energy bill passed a standard for light bulbs that only the newest-model bulbs can meet. If we were to begin to connect the dots, we would see that the American consumer is being told, indirectly, that his or her energy bill is going to continue to rise. However, we are not addressing the really big predictions. The United States is predicted to consume 133 million quads of energy by 2030. That is one-third more than we consume today. It took us 200-plus years to get this point, so adding a third more consumption doesn’t sound that bad … until you realize that China is predicted to be at 139 million quads by 2030. That’s only 20 years from now.

Increasing gasoline efficiency and changing light bulbs are not going to get us anywhere close to the energy needed to satisfy two economies the size of the United States. We continue to debate internally what we are going to do about climate change, which may affect us in 50 or 60 years, when this energy crisis is looming directly in front of us.

Political Predictions

Presidential politics being what they are, we are not seeing much foresight from Romney, Obama, Clinton, McCain et al. We did our review of their energy positions in the November 2007 issue of World Energy Monthly Review and found that at least in the short term, none of our candidates is predicting a solution to this looming crisis. Most analysts predict that oil prices will continue to rise.

So what is our forecast for 2008?

• In the very short term, we will see an increased natural gas price. I am sure that the promise of liquefied natural gas will still take some time to be realized as a real backstop to this price increase.
• Consumption at the pump will continue to rise. We need to move around the country, and the automobile is still the most efficient and flexible way to do this.
• OPEC will not increase supply, citing a lack of refining capacity to prevent the rest of the world from noticing that they have had no real increases in years.
• While we try to permit and locate new power plants, between climate change and NIMBY, we won’t see any significant increase in power production in the United States.
• And China, of course, will have none of those difficulties and will keep building its infrastructure and continue to make real gains at becoming the world’s manufacturing warehouse.

Richard R. Loomis is the founder of World Energy magazine, editor-in-chief of World Energy Monthly Review, original designer of World Energy Source, and producer of World Energy Television. He is responsible for creating a network of more than 250 CEOs, presidents, chairmen, energy dignitaries and consultants who write for his publications; overall design of the publications and Web site; subscriptions; and representation of the publication, now on its 10th year of publishing. For World Energy Monthly Review he writes feature editorials on topics ranging from politics to new technologies for the industry. During his career, he has interviewed more than 500 CEOs serving the energy industry.

Mr. Loomis began his career as a graphic assistant at Palisades Previews in Los Angeles, where he learned to do spot illustration, spec type and prepare art boards to be shot for film. He moved into the sales department at age 17 for Previews magazine in the Malibu area. Mr. Loomis graduated from the University of the Pacific with a bachelor's degree in business with an emphasis on marketing and graphic design. While at the university, he started his first publication, Silhouette magazine, and began an early career that included working on titles such as Ranch & Coast magazine, LA West magazine, The Beach & Bay Press and The Beacon. Other titles started by Mr. Loomis include Jump magazine, The Dallas Business Review, The Houston Business Review, Energy Houston, Energy Oklahoma, Energy Australia and Energy Calgary.

Other affiliations include the honorary committee for the Offshore Energy Center and the advisory committee of Bauer College’s Global Energy Management Institute at the University of Houston.