Publisher’s Note
Richard Loomis
Publisher
World Energy® Magazine
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“March will be unusually warm, on average, despite a cool end to the
month. Unusually warm temperatures will continue in April, while May will be
only a bit above normal. Rainfall will be below normal.”
– Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast for Texas, Oklahoma and surrounding
states
“Not everyone expects the next three months to be mild. A substantial
number of people depend upon the wooly worm for their predictions, and this
year the wooly worm predicts a rough winter. … Its coloration is orange
and black, with each color present in varying amounts. The orange supposedly
represents mildness and the black indicates severe weather. This year, there
was more black than orange.”
– Jim Ramsey, weather forecaster, robinstorm.blogspot.com
“‘Longevity’ replaces ‘sustainability’ as a
core concept for the green thing. Just hanging on to that expensive, fancy
car does more to help the planet than recycling stuff again and again. Or so
the marketing argument will go.”
– BusinessWeek.com prediction for 2008
Nostradamus never had it so good. If only the Internet had been around in
the 16th century, the French apothecary and seer could have taken advantage
of a worldwide web of prophets.
Today, we have no shortage of amateur prognosticators eager to share their
visions of everything from the weather to the Academy Awards to the upcoming
presidential election.
And of course, the energy industry is rolling in crystal balls. Some of the
predictions, such as the rise of the $100 barrel,
are based on the inevitable march of the world economy. Others, such as whether
peak oil has occurred (and if not, when it will), spark debate.
Predictions aside, some things we can take as gospel: For one, energy consumption
is rising. We are seeing the telltale signs that changes are occurring across
the world. We have hybrid cars in the United States. Headlines abound with
announcements that relate to power and attempts to curb energy usage. The first
new coal plants in decades are applying for permits. We might build a nuclear
power plant in the near future.
The most recent energy bill passed a standard for light bulbs that only the
newest-model bulbs can meet. If we were to begin to connect the dots, we would
see that the American consumer is being told, indirectly, that his or her energy
bill
is going to continue to rise. However, we are not addressing the really big
predictions. The United States is predicted to consume 133 million quads of
energy by 2030. That is one-third more than we consume today. It took us 200-plus
years to get this point, so adding a third more consumption doesn’t sound
that bad … until you realize that China is predicted to be at 139 million
quads by 2030. That’s only 20 years from now.
Increasing gasoline efficiency and changing light bulbs are not going to get
us anywhere close to the energy needed to satisfy two economies the size of
the United States. We continue to debate internally what we are going to do
about climate change, which may affect us in 50 or 60 years, when this energy
crisis is looming directly in front of us.
Political Predictions
Presidential politics being what they are, we are not seeing much foresight
from Romney, Obama, Clinton, McCain et al. We did our review of their energy
positions in the November 2007 issue of World Energy Monthly Review and found
that at least in the short term, none of our candidates is predicting a solution
to this looming crisis. Most analysts predict that oil prices will continue
to rise.
So what is our forecast for 2008?
- In the very short term, we will see an increased natural gas price.
I am sure that the promise of liquefied natural gas will still take some
time to be realized as a real backstop to this price increase.
- Consumption at the pump will continue to rise. We need to move around
the country, and the automobile is still the most efficient and flexible
way to do this.
- OPEC will not increase supply, citing a lack of refining capacity to prevent
the rest of the world from noticing that they have had no real increases
in years.
- While we try to permit and locate new power plants, between climate
change and NIMBY, we won’t see any significant increases in power production
in these United States.
- And China, of course, will have none of those difficulties and
will keep building its infrastructure and continue to make real gains at
becoming the world’s manufacturing warehouse.
Richard R. Loomis is the founder of World Energy magazine, editor-in-chief
of World Energy Monthly Review, original designer of World Energy
Source, and producer of World Energy Television. He is responsible for creating
a network of more than 250 CEOs, presidents, chairmen, energy dignitaries and
consultants who write for his publications; overall design of the publications
and Web site; subscriptions; and representation
of the publication, now on
its 10th year of publishing. For World Energy Monthly Review he writes
feature editorials on topics ranging from politics to new technologies for
the industry. During his career, he has interviewed more than 500 CEOs serving
the energy industry.
Mr. Loomis began his career as a graphic assistant at Palisades Previews
in Los Angeles, where he learned to do spot illustration, spec type and prepare
art boards to be shot for film. He moved into the sales department at age 17
for Previews magazine
in the Malibu area. Mr. Loomis graduated from the University of the Pacific
with a bachelor's degree in business with an emphasis on marketing and graphic
design. While at the university, he started his first publication, Silhouette magazine,
and began an early career that included working on titles such as Ranch & Coast magazine, LA
West magazine, The Beach & Bay Press and The Beacon.
Other titles started by Mr. Loomis include Jump magazine, The
Dallas Business Review, The Houston Business Review, Energy
Houston, Energy
Oklahoma, Energy Australia and Energy Calgary.
Other affiliations include the honorary committee for the Offshore Energy
Center and the advisory committee of Bauer College’s Global Energy Management
Institute at the University of Houston.
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